Agriculture

Human land use and agriculture in particular are the principle drivers of many of our biggest environmental challenges. At the same time, current food systems fail to provide food security to all consumers or decent livelihoods to all farmers worldwide. This research will help identify ways to use our land better and to move our food system towards enhanced sustainability by examining key knowledge gaps through interdisciplinary, transdisciplinary and cross-scalar research.

Scientific significance

Given the importance of agriculture for human well-being and its huge environmental impact, it is sobering to note that the drivers, land management options and practices of truly sustainable agricultural land use are still largely unknown. This is largely due to the still prevalent disciplinary approach to agricultural research, which prevents the identification of interactions and trade-offs between different socio-economic and environmental dimensions of land use. This research will therefore use cutting-edge quantitative and qualitative methods from a range of different disciplines, ranging from local field surveys and farmer interviews, to regional and global data synthesis and modelling studies, to examine holistically the sustainability of different agricultural land use strategies.

Societal relevance

Achieving sustainable land use and sustainable food security represents one of the most important societal challenges of the coming decades. Our research will not only address key knowledge gaps, but also contribute to the identification of levers for the sustainable transformation of our food systems through solutions-oriented and transdisciplinary research. By adopting an applied and human-centered research approach our work will examine research questions and provide answers that are directly relevant for different food system actors and policy-makers.

Contact

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Richard Fuchs

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Reinhard Prestele

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Joanna Raymond

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Spencer Roberts

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Ankita Saxena

Ankita Saxena

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Maitreyee Sevekari

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Karina Winkler

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Yongchao Zeng

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Jia Zhou

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Modelling Future Land Use in Great Britain

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Finally networking again

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Agriculture Publications

2024
Huber, R.; Bartkowski, B.; Brown, C.; El Benni, N.; Feil, J.-H.; Grohmann, P.; Joormann, I.; Leonhardt, H.; Mitter, H.; Müller, B.
Farm typologies for understanding farm systems and improving agricultural policy
2024. Agricultural Systems, 213, Art.Nr.: 103800. doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2023.103800Full textFull text of the publication as PDF document
2022
Bastos, A.; Ciais, P.; Sitch, S.; Aragão, L. E. O. C.; Chevallier, F.; Fawcett, D.; Rosan, T. M.; Saunois, M.; Günther, D.; Perugini, L.; Robert, C.; Deng, Z.; Pongratz, J.; Ganzenmüller, R.; Fuchs, R.; Winkler, K.; Zaehle, S.; Alvergel, C.
On the use of Earth Observation to support estimates of national greenhouse gas emissions and sinks for the Global stocktake process: lessons learned from ESA-CCI RECCAP2
2022. Carbon Balance and Management, 17 (1), Art.Nr. 15. doi:10.1186/s13021-022-00214-wFull textFull text of the publication as PDF document
2021
Brown, C.; Kovács, E.; Herzon, I.; Villamayor-Tomas, S.; Albizua, A.; Galanaki, A.; Grammatikopoulou, I.; McCracken, D.; Olsson, J. A.; Zinngrebe, Y.
Simplistic understandings of farmer motivations could undermine the environmental potential of the common agricultural policy
2021. Land use policy, 101, Art.Nr. 105136. doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.105136Full textFull text of the publication as PDF document
2020
Müller, B.; Hoffmann, F.; Heckelei, T.; Müller, C.; Hertel, T. W.; Polhill, J. G.; Wijk, M. van; Achterbosch, T.; Alexander, P.; Brown, C.; Kreuer, D.; Ewert, F.; Ge, J.; Millington, J. D. A.; Seppelt, R.; Verburg, P. H.; Webber, H.
Modelling food security: Bridging the gap between the micro and the macro scale
2020. Global environmental change, 63, 102085. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102085
2019
Alexander, P.; Reddy, A.; Brown, C.; Henry, R. C.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.
Transforming agricultural land use through marginal gains in the food system
2019. Global environmental change, 57, 101932. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101932
Fuchs, R.; Alexander, P.; Brown, C.; Cossar, F.; Henry, R. C.; Rounsevell, M.
Why the US–China trade war spells disaster for the Amazon
2019. Nature <London>, 567 (7749), 451–454. doi:10.1038/d41586-019-00896-2Full textFull text of the publication as PDF document
Lee, H.; Brown, C.; Seo, B.; Holman, I.; Audsley, E.; Cojocaru, G.; Rounsevell, M.
Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation
2019. Environmental research letters, 14 (10), Article: 104009. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab3744Full textFull text of the publication as PDF document
Brown, C.; Alexander, P.; Arneth, A.; Holman, I.; Rounsevell, M.
Achievement of Paris climate goals unlikely due to time lags in the land system
2019. Nature climate change, 9, 203–208. doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0400-5
2018
Synes, N. W.; Brown, C.; Palmer, S. C. F.; Bocedi, G.; Osborne, P. E.; Watts, K.; Franklin, J.; Travis, J. M. J.
Coupled land use and ecological models reveal emergence and feedbacks in socio-ecological systems
2018. Ecography. doi:10.1111/ecog.04039
Huber, R.; Bakker, M.; Balmann, A.; Berger, T.; Bithell, M.; Brown, C.; Grêt-Regamey, A.; Xiong, H.; Le, Q. B.; Mack, G.; Meyfroidt, P.; Millington, J.; Müller, B.; Polhill, J. G.; Sun, Z.; Seidl, R.; Troost, C.; Finger, R.
Representation of decision-making in European agricultural agent-based models
2018. Agricultural systems, 167, 143–160. doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2018.09.007
Muneret, L.; Mitchell, M.; Seufert, V.; Aviron, S.; Djoudi, E. A.; Pétillon, J.; Plantegenest, M.; Thiéry, D.; Rusch, A.
Evidence that organic farming promotes pest control
2018. Nature Sustainability, 1 (7), 361–368. doi:10.1038/s41893-018-0102-4
Li, S.; Juhász-Horváth, L.; Pintér, L.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Harrison, P. A.
Modelling regional cropping patterns under scenarios of climate and socio-economic change in Hungary
2018. The science of the total environment, 622-623, 1611–1620. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.10.038
Frei, B.; Renard, D.; Mitchell, M. G. E.; Seufert, V.; Chaplin-Kramer, R.; Rhemtulla, J. M.; Bennett, E. M.
Bright spots in agricultural landscapes: Identifying areas exceeding expectations for multifunctionality and biodiversity
2018. Journal of applied ecology, 55 (6), 2731–2743. doi:10.1111/1365-2664.13191
Nicholls, E.; Botias, C.; Rotheray, E. L.; Whitehorn, P.; David, A.; Fowler, R.; David, T.; Feltham, H.; Swain, J. L.; Wells, P.; Hill, E. M.; Osborne, J. L.; Goulson, D.
Monitoring neonicotinoid exposure for bees in rural and peri-urban areas of the UK during the transition from pre- to post-moratorium
2018. Environmental science & technology, 52 (16), 9391–9402. doi:10.1021/acs.est.7b06573
Henry, R. C.; Engström, K.; Olin, S.; Alexander, P.; Arneth, A.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.
Food supply and bioenergy production within the global cropland planetary boundary
2018. (P. C. Struik, Ed.) PLoS one, 13 (3), Art. Nr.: e0194695. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0194695Full textFull text of the publication as PDF document
2017
Alexander, P.; Brown, C.; Arneth, A.; Dias, C.; Finnigan, J.; Moran, D.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.
Could consumption of insects, cultured meat or imitation meat reduce global agricultural land use?
2017. Global food security, 15, 22–32. doi:10.1016/j.gfs.2017.04.001Full textFull text of the publication as PDF document
Brown, C.; Alexander, P.; Holzhauer, S.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.
Behavioral models of climate change adaptation and mitigation in land-based sectors
2017. Wiley interdisciplinary reviews / Climate change, 8 (2), Art.Nr. e448. doi:10.1002/wcc.448
Li, S.; Juhász-Horváth, L.; Harrison, P. A.; Pintér, L.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.
Relating farmer’s perceptions of climate change risk to adaptation behaviour in Hungary
2017. Journal of environmental management, 185, 21–30. doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.10.051
Alexander, P.; Brown, C.; Arneth, A.; Finnigan, J.; Moran, D.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.
Losses, inefficiencies and waste in the global food system
2017. Agricultural systems, 153, 190–200. doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2017.01.014Full textFull text of the publication as PDF document
2016
Alexander, P.; Brown, C.; Arneth, A.; Finnigan, J.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.
Human appropriation of land for food : The role of diet
2016. Global environmental change, 41, 88–98. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.09.005
Seo, B.; Bogner, C.; Koellner, T.; Reineking, B.
Mapping Fractional Land Use and Land Cover in a Monsoon Region: The Effects of Data Processing Options
2016. IEEE journal of selected topics in applied earth observations and remote sensing, 9 (9), 3941–3956. doi:10.1109/JSTARS.2016.2544802
Martin, E. A.; Seo, B.; Park, C.-R.; Reineking, B.; Steffan-Dewenter, I.
Scale-dependent effects of landscape composition and configuration on natural enemy diversity, crop herbivory, and yields
2016. Ecological applications, 26 (2), 448–462. doi:10.1890/15-0856
Harrison, P. A.; Dunford, R. W.; Holman, I. P.; Rounsevell, M.
Climate change impact modelling needs to include cross-sectoral interactions
2016. Nature climate change, 6 (9), 885–890. doi:10.1038/nclimate3039
Engström, K.; Olin, S.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Brogaard, S.; Vuuren, D. P. van; Alexander, P.; Murray-Rust, D.; Arneth, A.
Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework
2016. Earth System Dynamics, 7 (4), 893–915. doi:10.5194/esd-7-893-2016Full textFull text of the publication as PDF document
Prestele, R.; Alexander, P.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Arneth, A.; Calvin, K.; Doelman, J.; Eitelberg, D. A.; Engström, K.; Fujimori, S.; Hasegawa, T.; Havlik, P.; Humpenöder, F.; Jain, A. K.; Krisztin, T.; Kyle, P.; Meiyappan, P.; Popp, A.; Sands, R. D.; Schaldach, R.; Schüngel, J.; Stehfest, E.; Tabeau, A.; Van Meijl, H.; Van Vliet, J.; Verburg, P. H.
Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison
2016. Global change biology, 22 (12), 3967–3983. doi:10.1111/gcb.13337Full textFull text of the publication as PDF document
Engström, K.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Murray-Rust, D.; Hardacre, C.; Alexander, P.; Cui, X.; Palmer, P. I.; Arneth, A.
Applying Occam’s razor to global agricultural land use change
2016. Environmental modelling & software, 75, 212–229. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.10.015Full textFull text of the publication as PDF document
2014
Shope, C. L.; Maharjan, G. R.; Tenhunen, J.; Seo, B.; Kim, K.; Riley, J.; Arnhold, S.; Koellner, T.; Ok, Y. S.; Peiffer, S.; Kim, B.; Park, J.-H.; Huwe, B.
Using the SWAT model to improve process descriptions and define hydrologic partitioning in South Korea
2014. Hydrology and earth system sciences, 18 (2), 539–557. doi:10.5194/hess-18-539-2014Full textFull text of the publication as PDF document
Seo, B.; Bogner, C.; Poppenborg, P.; Martin, E.; Hoffmeister, M.; Jun, M.; Koellner, T.; Reineking, B.; Shope, C. L.; Tenhunen, J.
Deriving a per-field land use and land cover map in an agricultural mosaic catchment
2014. Earth system science data, 6 (2), 339–352. doi:10.5194/essd-6-339-2014Full textFull text of the publication as PDF document
2013
K’Otuto, G. O.; Otieno, D. O.; Seo, B.; Ogindo, H. O.; Onyango, J. C.
Carbon dioxide exchange and biomass productivity of the herbaceous layer of a managed tropical humid savanna ecosystem in western Kenya
2013. Journal of plant ecology, 6 (4), 286–297. doi:10.1093/jpe/rts038
Martin, E. A.; Reineking, B.; Seo, B.; Steffan-Dewenter, I.
Natural enemy interactions constrain pest control in complex agricultural landscapes
2013. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110 (14), 5534–5539. doi:10.1073/pnas.1215725110
2012
Thanh Nguyen, T.; Hoang, V.-N.; Seo, B.
Cost and environmental efficiency of rice farms in South Korea
2012. Agricultural economics, 43 (4), 369–378. doi:10.1111/j.1574-0862.2012.00589.x